政治理论研究

“9·11”事件发生以来，美国的反恐行动虽取得一定成效，却因扩大军事行动、强行输出美式民主与道德价值观等激化了伊斯兰世界的反美情绪，也让美国背负了沉重的财政负担，其国际声誉与全球支持度持续下滑。美国与伊斯兰反美力量的对峙，根源涉及文化、文明等多方面的复杂因素。这种难以调和的对峙消耗了美国的硬实力与软实力，使其霸权根基开始动摇。从近代以来西方大国兴衰的历史看，霸权国家兴衰的周期为130年左右，依此规律推测，美国霸权已步入“逆转”阶段。美国与伊斯兰反美力量的对峙或将成为终结美国霸权的重要因素，这也预示着单极霸权模式的衰落。

Since the September 11 attacks,the United States has achieved notable successes in its counterterrorism efforts.However,its expanded military operations and the forceful promotion of American-style democracy and associated values have significantly intensified anti-American sentiment across the Islamic world.These actions have also imposed a heavy fiscal burden on the United States while steadily eroding its international reputation and global support.The confrontation between the United States and anti-American forces in the Islamic world arises from deep-rooted and multifaceted factors,including cultural and civilizational differences.This seemingly irreconcilable conflict has consumed substantial American hard and soft power alike,thereby weakening the very foundations of U.S.hegemony.Drawing on the historical patterns of great-power rise and decline in the modern era,hegemonic cycles have typically lasted approximately 130 years.On this basis,it can be argued that American hegemony has entered a phase of "reversal." The ongoing confrontation with anti-American forces in the Islamic world may prove to be a significant contributing factor in the erosion of U.S.hegemony and the gradual decline of the unipolar system.